Warning - depressing book!

Limits to Growth : The 30 year update
Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jorgen Randers



If you remember the population explosion scares of the middle twentieth century, you know the premise of this book, originally published in 1972. The limits discussed are those that limit human population and the happiness of the billions of people on the earth.

Perhaps you have heard of the Hubbert Peak for oil? That theory represents but one of the limits. There are limits to the amount of grain that can be grown, clean water extracted, pollution spewed, and metals mined. There are dozens of these limits involved in their environmental model, World3. The book is primarily a summary of the simulation runs they made with the model, with a serious comparison between the models they reported on in the 1970's and the runs they made immediately after the turn of the century. The comparisons are not promising.

This is not a book you will read for relaxation or inspiration. It reads much like those dimly remembered college textbooks. There are plenty of graphs and intricate diagrams. They feed the engineer in me. But they do not show a pretty picture. We have gone beyond several of the limits. Water, minerals, agriculture. The limits can show up as increasing prices for commodities like corn and oil. Perhaps you have noticed the price increases already.

In the first edition of the book, the authors were optimistic that enlightened people would take measures to reduce pollution, decrease consumption, and generally improve the world. They are no longer as optimistic. Consumption continues it inexorable exponential growth. Though the increase in pollution has abated somewhat, the curve has not turned down.

The World3 model computes several variables, two of which are population and "human welfare." Welfare representing what I would call the quality of life. In most simulation runs both tend to peak in the middle of this century. In some of the worst case scenarios even us boomers will see the impact in our daily lives. Examples of that impact are incredibly high gasoline prices and food prices. Even now, oil and food are just above their lowest real price in decades. We have it good. Today.

Today I came across a web site that illustrates the limits to growth concept perfectly. Visit The Story of Stuff to watch the video. Annie tells the story without the graphs and feedback diagrams. It is very entertaining and gives me hope we can improve our lot. She also has a blog I have added to my Google Reader.

All in all, this is a depressing book. To see scientific evidence that the world my granddaughter will live in is not as wonderful as the one we live in is ... well, depressing. I would hope that we all could do something to ease the pressure on our one blue green planet, but we don't do much. To my chagrin, I have not take the bus to work for over a year. Work has been too demanding. (Excuse!) Friends buy hybrid cars, but I remain to be convinced of the ecological benefit. (You can help me here!)

My next book is In Defense of Food - an eaters manifesto. Based on the first couple of chapters, science is not doing us justice. Anther book I have started, by Depak Chopra, promises to be more uplifting. Bear with me between now and then.

Enjoy your next book.